At midnight tonight, we should learn that Boris Johnson is the new mayor of London, and for me the process of watching election results come in will end 25 hours after it begun. This is the closest someone like me gets to listening to the football. Anyway I was there in Manchester town hall last night running around in a baggy pink Unite Against Fascism t-shirt (my plan had been to embarrass the BNP, but we were kept apart. In hindsight, it’s probably a good thing that I didn’t provoke the Nazis) and generally needling the more uptight representatives of the Mancunian political class (loudly referring to Labour and Lib Dem cadres as “Red Tory, Yellow Tory, Red Tory, Yellow Tory…” was fun), and ostensibly making sure no-one cheated (to justify my presence in this role, I sidled up to the nearest Lib-Dem-with-clipboard, saying “I sure hope yis are not planning on cheating ‘cos, y’know, we’re here watching”. He didn’t find it as funny as I did, pretty much exploding in my face to the bemusement of the vote-counters). A fun night was had by all, after which the intense campaigning of the last few weeks caught up with your humble narrator and his exhausted comrades.
Anyway, enough anecdote, and on to the analysis.
As you may have gathered, Labour have taken quite the beating - down to third place in terms of the total vote, behind even the Lib Dems whose performance was hardly inspiring - and the Tories look set to take the London mayor’s office and, most likely, to win at the next general election. Meanwhile the Left List have shown that we’ve survived the split of Respect and remain a force to be reckoned with, although there’s no denying that we’re still a very small party. At the other end of the spectrum, the Nazis aren’t getting quite the breakthrough they’d hoped for (update: now the London results are in, I take that back. They’ve not broken through in Manchester, but in London they’ve made a scary amount of progress) but any progress on their part is very alarming indeed.
The results of course, are only part of the story, but they point at a major realignment of British politics.
Let’s start with London. While Johnston’s clownish Have I Got News For You persona no doubt helped him, yesterday was less a case of him winning than of Livingstone losing. While campaigning to keep his job, Livingstone seemed to have completely forgotten how he got it in the first place. He saw a challenge from the hard right, and swung rightwards to compete for the right-of-centre votes, assuming the left-leaning types would have no choice but to back him. Eight years ago, he was the one undermining New Labour’s employment of that exact same logic, providing Londoners with a real choice. This time he has deprived them of this choice, reassimilitating himself into New Labour and sounding increasingly Toryish on crime, trade unions and privatisation.
Despite his attempt to be Boris-lite, Ken remains a lot better than Boris - particularly on race relations and the environment - but even that ended up meaning very little. Even if Livingstone scraped through on second-preference votes, he would have presided over a Tory-dominated GLA and, believe it or not, had even promised to include Boris in his next cabinet. Thus, there was no way to convincingly vote against Boris; those who wanted a Tory voted actual Tory over Tory-lite and those who didn’t had little choice but to stay home. If Livingstone-2000 had stood this year, he would have wiped the floor with Johnson, Paddick and Livingstone-2008 put together.
The reasons for Labour’s decline nationally was very much the same story. Labour voters moved to the Tories and the Liberals not because they no longer wanted the party of the working class in office, but because they no longer saw Labour as the party of the working class. We never left the Labour party; the Labour party left us. Likewise, the ascent of the Liberals that seemed inevitable under the cuddly, left-leaning, antiwar (or at least “not yet entirely convinced of the case for war”) Charles Kennedy has been halted since the coup of the hard-neoliberal Orange Book crowd. The Liberals have quickly gone from siding with the solution to siding with the problem.
And so, voting Tory is not voting for the Tories, it’s the protest vote of the desperate. Even the BBC paused from its ongoing rightward journey to remark that:
we should be cautious about drawing direct parallels between Gordon Brown’s current miseries and those of the John Major in 1995. There could well be a “tipping point” for the Conservatives as there was for Labour in the mid 1990s but it hasn’t happened yet according to the opinion polls.
Perhaps one reason the Conservatives have not yet been able to marshal the level of support which rallied to Labour more than a decade ago can be found in the depressing answers to a question asked in the BBC’s election night programme opinion poll.
ICM asked respondents which party “can be trusted to keep its promises”? Some 17% said the Conservatives, 17% said Labour and 16% said the Lib Dems. But 58% said “none of them”. It doesn’t seem to be difficult to persuade people that your political opponents aren’t up to the job. But it seems much harder these days to persuade them that you are.
I don’t find that “depressing” actually; I find it heartening that people have sharpened their analysis to that point. But this is what happens when Labour are in power. When Labour are in, the problem is that even when the agents of the capitalist state are elected from the working class by the working class, they inevitably come to attack the working class. When the Tories are in, the problem is that the Tories are in. This is why we must be doubly afraid of the next Tory government; not just because they will be nastier than Labour could ever manage (and they will be), but because we will have to compete with Labour in the battle of ideas.
Anyway, let’s not jump off that bridge until we come to it. Under the Tory government, the contradictions of New Labour will fade into the background, granted, but we still have two more years of a Labour government to deal with in the meantime, and it is in this meantime that those contradictions will become more glaring than ever. The past ten years have been good to the British economy, good to the British working class, and it would have been possible to accomodate a lot of the workers’ demands if they’d been organised enough, post-Thatcher, to really make any, and even then New Labour spent more time pursuing a punitive neoliberal agenda than paying lip-service to its heartlanders (the Tories, remember, would be able to abandon even that lip-service) - so imagine what they’ll do now the joyless boom is giving way to the even less joyful bust.
We’re already seeing it, with the incomes policy - the pay freeze, the benefits squeeze, the 10p tax fraud - that has sent Gordon Brown on the sharpest popularity plummet since Neville Chamberlain failed to Stop The War, and when he promises tough leadership for tough circumstances he is promising more of the same, and harder. That’s partly because there are only so many ways for the party of big business to react to an economic slump, but more than anything because of the political landscape. The logic of triangulation will lead the Labour party leadership and many of their surviving activists to a very dangerous conclusion: that the swing towards Tory votes represents a swing towards Tory attitudes. If you thought they were trying to out-Tory the Tories before, you should see how they react to this.
With a bit of luck, the other half of the Labour party will see things differently. There are those who resigned themselves to the compromises of Old Labour long ago, but never felt quite right about the evil schemes of New Labour. In times like these, they will know exactly why they’re not getting the votes: they’ve become the party they always hated. They may have wished, for a long time, for a leftier kind of Labour, and they will see that now is the time to make it so. The New Labour project hangs together during the good times, but in a real crisis we will see a real polarisation between a leadership swinging right and a support base swinging left.
This happened, to an extent, with the Iraq war. Then, as now, a lot of us swore off ever voting Labour again, and we saw some high-profile dissent: Robin Cook resigned from his position, Clare Short resigned from the party, and George Galloway went right over to what we hoped would become the new left. This rebellion was much too small to amount to anything big, and the Respect party had already fallen short of our wildest hopes long before a significant chunk of it cracked off under the weight of Galloway’s ego. However, we’re already seeing much more discontent and disillusion than we did then, with even the most loyal of Labourites starting to look tentatively leftwards.
The first voter I met at the polling station on election day came straight out with the question: “are you Labour?!” He was very disappointed, it turned out, that no representatives of the Labour Party were present because he’d got up especially to shout at them for privatising his council house. We’d campaigned heavily against the council house privatisation, and in the end we convinced him that a Left List vote would make his point more effectively. Our campaigning struck a chord with a lot of disaffected Labour voters, and even some of those that didn’t quite make the jump confessed to have had a really tough time making the decision, congratulated us and even thanked us for dragging the debate leftwards after decades of it drifting toward the right.
Then there’s the trade unions, the crucial link between Labour and the working class vote. So far, the unions to really stand up to the pay freeze have been those that weren’t linked to Labour in the first place, and the joint action we’ve seen recently gives me hope that they could be at the heart of a new alignment; Mark Serwotka, the general secretary of the PCS union, has already given the Left List a hearty endorsement. Such unions remain the exception, rather than the rule. My stepmum’s union just endorsed the pay freeze, while mine didn’t stop at telling me to vote Labour, it even invited me to a social where Hazel Blears, the bane of Salford, will teach us how the party and the union can work together more effectively. Bleurgh.
But then, my stepmum left her union in disgust, and I’m seriously thinking of doing the same. This is one half of the unions’ state of flux; the other is, as industrial action and class action become more of an issue, that workers are joining unions with precisely these things on their mind. Given a significant victory for the fighting unions and their political allies, and I think the bureaucrats who insist on backing Labour through thick and thin (who, let’s face it, would vote Labour even if Gordon Brown bombed their houses and shot their kids because, after all, it’s better than having a Tory bomb your house and shoot your kids) will find themselves very isolated indeed. That victory is what we’re waiting for. We point at our campaign to save council houses, and the council houses weren’t saved; we point at the united strikes against the pay freeze, and the pay freeze wasn’t broken. This hurts our argument, but just wait until we can show that is it an option to fight the power, it is an option to win!
As revolutionaries, we like elections but we don’t love them. This has been a chance for us to engage with the class, and a chance for them to guage the standing of the different parties. The important part begins now, now that Labour have been fully discredited, now that we can build an alternative - so that when the Tory government does come in, we’ll be ready to take them on. This has happened in France already - we were terrified of what the Sarkozy government would do, but they’ve barely been able to get away with anything - and there’s no reason we can’t make it happen here too.
Update:
The London results were worse than even I had feared. Not only is Boris in, but the BNP have got a seat on the assembly and even the National Front are coming out of the woodwork with tens of thousands of votes. The Left List, meanwhile, got creamed - only in two constituencies did we break through the 3% barrier, and in many we failed to get even 1% - but in the one constituency where the faction that got to keep the Respect name was standing they actually did rather well.
I think the message to take home is this: in Manchester, Birmingham and Sheffield, where we could effectively canvass and reach out to people, Left List did very well. In London, no-one had heard of the new name, and still looked for Respect; where they saw the Respect name, that candidate did very well.
Politically, this shows that a Left-of-Labour challenge can still be very credible. Practically, it means that it will be more difficult for the Left List to claim that credibility in the eyes of the class, the unions, and those who Labour has abandoned, especially as more of those eyes will be on London than on Preston or Bolton. The kind of left realignment I talked about will be much harder than it would have been without the split.
But what can you do? All this means is that the we’ll have to be even more serious about building a movement when the elections aren’t on - especially during the strike wave that is surely coming and, looking at the London votes, by building antifascist demos - and really that’s where we should be focusing our energies anyway. Still…
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